Nassim Nicholas Taleb Volgorde van de boeken (chronologisch)

The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible.Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress". Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=?, and the real world is in between, under of the "laws of the medium numbers" --which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence.A few examples:+ The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naive empiricism", but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods.+ The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical.+ Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics.+ Dimension reduction (principal components) fails.+ Inequality estimators (GINI or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results.+ Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions+ Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions.This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

Nassim Taleb's five landmark bestselling books have changed the way millions see the world and think about uncertainty, chance, volatility, and risk. They can be read individually but are also written to complement each other and actually comprise a single work: The Incerto. This boxed set is newly designed and offers readers one of the most significant intellectual projects of our time.

The perfect gift to get you through the work Christmas party, family board game blow ups and dinner with the in-laws. 'A classic' - Simon Kuper, Financial Times 'This is brilliant' - James O'Brien, author of How to be Right The five laws that confirm our worst fears: stupid people can and do rule the world. Since time immemorial, a powerful dark force has hindered the growth of human welfare and happiness. It is more powerful than the Mafia or the military. It has global catastrophic effects and can be found anywhere from the world's most powerful boardrooms to your local pub. This is the immensely powerful force of human stupidity. Seeing the shambolic state of human affairs, and sensing the dark force at work behind it, Carlo M. Cipolla, the late, noted professor of economic history at the University of California, Berkeley, created a vitally important economic model that would allow us to detect, know and neutralise this threat: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity. If you've ever found yourself despairing at the ubiquity of stupidity among even the most 'intellectual' of people, then this hilarious, timely and slightly alarming little book is for you. Arm yourself in the face of baffling political realities, unreasonable colleagues or the unbridled misery of Christmas day with the in-laws with the first and only economic model for stupidity.

О чем книга О самых невероятных, оригинальных научно-фантастических идеях, которые в будущем, возможно, станут реальностью. О том, как самые разные ученые, оказывается, способны поверить в любые гипотезы и поведать всем нам о своих идеях, связанных с новыми областями эволюционной биологии, генетики, компьютерных наук, нейрофизиологии, психологии и физики... Почему книга достойна прочтения Лучшие умы XXI века предлагают необычное видение возможностей науки и технического прогресса. Книга отвечает на самые разные вопросы, - начиная с того, что же такое сознание человека, и кончая тем, одиноки ли мы во Вселенной, - интересующие не только мировое научное сообщество, но и каждого из нас. Ведь все мы, так или иначе, задаемся вопросами мироздания. Уникальная возможность познакомиться с тем, каким образом ученые сегодня находят путь к истине. Для кого эта книга Для всех, кто чувствует ритм нашего времени - времени научно-технического бума, и кому интересно узнать, во что можно и нужно верить, даже если это пока еще не доказано.

Die "Incerto-Reihe" von Nassim Nicholas Taleb, die die Werke "Der Schwarze Schwan", "Narren des Zufalls", "Antifragilität" und das "Kleine Handbuch für den Umgang mit Unwissen" umfasst, untersucht die Rolle von Glück, Unsicherheit und Risiko in einer komplexen Welt. Daniel Kahneman beschreibt Talebs Einfluss auf seine Weltsicht.

Traces the author's experiences as a mathematics wizard, author, inventor, hedge-fund manager, and card-counter who revealed casino-beating strategies, invented the first wearable computer, and launched a Wall Street revolution

Why should we never listen to people who explain rather than do? Why do companies go bust? How is it that we have more slaves today than in Roman times? Why does imposing democracy on other countries never work? The answer- too many people running the world don't have skin in the game. In this provocative book, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows that skin in the game applies to all aspects of our lives. It's about having something to lose and taking a risk. Citizens, lab experimenters, artisans, political activists and hedge fund traders all have skin in the game. Policy wonks, corporate executives, theoreticians, bankers and most journalists don't.

New York Times bestselling author Nassim Taleb's landmark Incerto series - Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, The Bed of Procrustes - gathered together for the first time, in a beautifully designed box set.

‘Als je het niet simpel kunt uitleggen, dan begrijp je het niet goed genoeg.’ – Einstein wist als geen ander hoe wetenschap kan zijn. Wetenschap is op zijn mooist als ingewikkelde problemen op elegante wijze verklaard kunnen worden. De 156 verklaringen in dit boek zijn zo mooi dat je hart er sneller van gaat kloppen. John Brockman, oprichter van de website edge.org, stelt jaarlijks één vraag aan een selectie van de meest interessante wetenschappers en kunstenaars ter wereld. Dit jaar was de vraag: ‘Wat is je favoriete diepe, elegante of mooie verklaring?’ In Dit verklaart alles delen 156 Nederlandse en internationale toonaangevende denkers hun antwoord op deze vraag. De wetenschappers die aan het woord komen zijn dagelijks bezig met de theorieën en oplossingen van deze tijd, vanuit de filosofie, wiskunde, economie, geschiedenis, linguïstiek en gedragswetenschappen. De bijdragen zijn van Susan Blackmore, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, Richard Dawkins, Brian Eno (muzikant en producer van U2), Stine Jensen, Steven Pinker en nog 150 anderen. Op filosofische, intellectuele, humoristische, confronterende en innovatieve wijze worden de meest elegante wetenschappelijke verklaringen uitgelegd. In dit boek staan de antwoorden der antwoorden op de vragen der vragen.

"The acclaimed author of the influential bestseller The Black Swan, Nicholas Nassim Taleb takes a next big step with a deceptively simple concept: the "antifragile." Like the Greek hydra that grows two heads for each one it loses, people, systems, and institutions that are antifragile not only withstand shocks, they benefit from them. In a modern world dominated by chaos and uncertainty, Antifragile is a revolutionary vision from one of the most subversive and important thinkers of our time"-- Provided by publisher

A gripping tale of how even experts misread the role of chance - from the stock market to doctors' surgeries - "Dance With Chance" argues that we all fall foul of the 'The Illusion of Control', meaning that we underestimate the role of luck in our lives. The authors argue that by understanding how uncertainty operates, we can make palpable improvements to our health, wealth, happiness and careers.

"New edition, fully updated and expanded In a climate when iconoclasm is the smartest intellectual stance - whether against bankers, traders, politicians, the energy industry, or journalists - one of today's most prominent rabble-rousers gives his quick-witted and snappy guide to questioning the status quo. With characteristic panache and brio, Taleb uses aphorisms to condense his rambunctious ideas and style. This is the perfect reference for anyone searching for the right questions to ask."

Ze zijn onvoorspelbaar, ze hebben een gigantische impact... en achteraf proberen we ze aannemelijk en voorspelbaar te maken. Zwarte Zwanen zijn toevallige gebeurtenissen die ons leven bepalen, van bestsellers tot wereldrampen. Harry Potter was een Zwarte Zwaan, het internet, 11 september was er een. Zwarte Zwanen liggen ten grondslag aan bijna alle belangrijke gebeurtenissen in de geschiedenis, politiek, wetenschap, in zaken en privé. Waarom herkennen we Zwarte Zwanen pas achteraf? Omdat de mens details ziet, en geen algemeenheden. We richten ons op wat we al weten en vergeten keer op keer stil te staan bij wat we niet weten. We zijn geneigd om te simplificeren, verhalen te maken, in hokjes te duwen, en staan niet open voor het ‘onmogelijke’. We zijn blind voor toeval en daarom lopen we kansen mis. In deze spannende internationale bestseller verklaart Nassim Nicholas Taleb alles wat we weten over wat we niet weten. Hij biedt verrassend eenvoudig inzicht in hoe je voordeel kunt behalen met Zwarte Zwanen. De Zwarte Zwaan zal de manier waarop je naar de wereld kijkt veranderen. Het leert voorspellingen en advies te relativeren (en vaak te negeren), kritisch te denken en klaar te staan om snel te handelen.

Praise for Jim Gatheral's new book highlights its accessibility and practicality in the complex field of stochastic volatility. It strikes a balance between specific examples and general models, providing clarity without sacrificing sophistication. The book offers a comprehensive examination of the implied volatility surface, its implications for pricing and hedging, and the theories attempting to explain it. Gatheral, a skilled practitioner, draws from his popular NYU course, covering cutting-edge topics in mathematical finance with unmatched clarity. His expertise in advanced modeling for derivatives is evident as he unveils the intricacies of volatility, a critical yet elusive financial metric. Esteemed figures in the field commend the book as a significant educational resource, offering insights that were previously hard to access for students. Gatheral's work is recognized as a valuable contribution to mathematical finance, reflecting his extensive market experience and teaching background. Overall, this book is highly recommended by professionals and educators alike for its depth and clarity in addressing complex financial concepts.

Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? This book aims to change the way you think about business and the world. It also seeks to shatter the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness.

Dynamic Hedging is an essential guide to managing derivatives risk, offering a practical approach for portfolios with nonlinear securities. It presents insights from the perspective of option market makers and arbitrage operators. Authored by an experienced trader with theoretical expertise, it adapts option theory to real-world scenarios, addressing the limitations of traditional mathematical models in capturing market exposure. Nassim Taleb explores both on-model and off-model derivatives risks, discussing critical concepts in accessible language. Key topics include the generalized option, which covers all convex payoff instruments, and trading techniques for exotic options like binary, barrier, multi-asset, and Asian options, while considering the complexities of actual distributions. The book examines market dynamics from a practitioner's viewpoint, addressing liquidity issues, portfolio insurance, volatility surfaces, and the shortcomings of value at risk methods. It introduces new risk detection tools, including higher moment analysis and nonparametric techniques, while emphasizing the path dependence of dynamically hedged options. Filled with practical tools, market anecdotes, and concise risk management rules, it also presents fundamental derivatives mathematics in intuitive terms, making it a valuable resource for practitioners.