Focusing on the analysis of forecasting models, this work examines the current state of the European electricity market, with a specific emphasis on the Italian Electricity Market (IPEX). It highlights key characteristics of electricity prices and presents various models for effective forecasting. Additionally, the book includes an empirical analysis of time series data related to prices in the Italian market, applying the discussed forecasting models to enhance understanding of market dynamics.
Despite ongoing liberalization in the Balkan utility industries, Albania's electricity sector remains in early development stages. Introducing market mechanisms could enhance competition and lower prices. The theoretical framework and evidence presented suggest that price reductions are more effectively achieved through integrated liberalized markets. Significant benefits for the Southeast European (SEE) electricity sector could arise from establishing a regional electricity market, potentially leading to integration with the broader energy market. Insights into comparative advantages are drawn from a simulated interconnected pool among SEE countries, particularly those bordering Albania, supported by differing generation resources.
A theoretical platform is established for electricity cost formation, calculating key determinants of generation portfolios using optimization software. Cost evaluations are preceded by demand and load forecasts, employing the ARMA model and three macroeconomic growth scenarios. A linear model minimizes total generation costs, considering both short and long-term marginal costs. Results indicate that interconnected scenarios yield lower costs compared to isolated operations, highlighting economic benefits from a cooperative pool.
The analysis concludes with policy recommendations aimed at creating a cohesive package of measures for integrated electricity markets. Initiatives should align with par
