Juan Carlos Arévalo Linares Boeken

The study explores the evolution of organized crime in El Salvador from 2014 to 2019 through prospective scenario analysis. It details the concept of scenario building and outlines various methods, ultimately selecting the emancipatory method for its technical and social utility. By identifying influential factors and verifying hypotheses through interviews and research, the analysis presents three potential scenarios: stability of conditions, worsening variables, and proactive improvements to mitigate crime.