This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the long-term industrial development prospects of latecomer economies. It analyzes how three megatrends—digitalization, economic power shifts, and environmental sustainability—are reshaping industrialization opportunities and barriers. The pandemic has not fundamentally altered these trends but has accelerated or decelerated some, such as online trading and potential reshoring. The study concludes with policy recommendations for enhancing economic resilience and fostering green development.
The study explores the urgent need for a green economy and the role of national quality infrastructure in developing countries. It examines the diffusion of green technologies and the necessary quality infrastructure investments to support this transition, highlighting the importance of standards, testing, and accreditation.
Many coastal resources, including fish stocks and mangrove forests, are “common pool resources”. It is difficult to exclude anyone interested from harvesting them, which typically results in overexploitation. The study compares three incentive schemes that may induce resource users to protect or rehabilitate coastal resources: Payments for Ecosystem Services, Environmental Conditional Cash Transfers and Cash for Work. We find that the first two have many prerequisites that make nationwide application very difficult, particularly in developing countries. Cash for Work is easier to implement and works well as a second-best alternative. We document two cases of Cash for Work aimed at the protection of common pool resources in the Philippines: (1) a policy experiment whereby Cash for Work was used to offer alternative sources of income to fisherfolk during a temporary fishing ban when the commercially most important species spawn, and (2) mangrove reforestation programmes. Overall, Cash for Work proved to be effective, but its success was contingent upon policy design. For both cases, the study specifies in detail what is needed to make Cash for Work effective in environmental and social terms.
Structural change towards diversification and competitiveness is important to make our economies productive, wealthy and sustainable. In market economies, structural change is essentially driven by private entrepreneurs who challenge incumbents with new business ideas and take risks to implement them. While public policy cannot fully anticipate the outcomes of such market-driven search processes, it does have important roles in directing structural change: it can facilitate stakeholder processes meant to overcome coordination and information failure and thereby smooth the transformation; it can make pre-competitive investments in infrastructure and skills for the future; and it can help align structural change with broader societal objectives, such as environmental sustainability or job creation. To fulfil these roles, policymakers need to have an idea about future competitive patterns of specialisation. The challenge is to anticipate trends and facilitate action towards promising futures in ways that are as evidence-based as possible and effectively synchronised with market forces. Our paper makes three essential contributions to addressing this challenge: (1) We identify five influential methodologies for anticipating future competitive advantages, analyse their strengths and weaknesses, and suggest ways to consolidate their most valuable features in one synthetic approach. (2) In doing so, we emphasise the importance of disruptive change, stemming in particular from decarbonisation as well as the digitalisation of economic processes and products. Such game changers are likely to affect virtually all economic sectors, thereby reducing the predictive power of methodologies that essentially extrapolate from the past. (3) We highlight the need to contextualise the various analytical tools, and caution against using them as technocratic blueprints. To be of practical use, evidence-based assessments of future competitive advantages need to be embedded into a political economy framework that takes account of both societal objectives (normative level) and implementation capabilities (institutional level).
The diffusion of supermarkets in developing countries increases productivity, but fast roll-out also treatens the livelihoods of millions engaged in traditional stores and their supply chains. We show what governments and retail corporations can do to make retail modernisation inclusive.
Shows that to avoid irreversible damage to global ecosystems, new "green" technologies are needed. Notes also that some of those are still far from commercial maturity, and that in such cases, governments may create temporary rents to make investments "artificially" attractive. Argues that the creation of such rents, however, involves risks of misallocation and political capture. Looks at rent management in the case of India's National Solar Mission. Shows that so far, the mission has been remarkably effective in triggering solar investments and keeping the necessary subsidies manageable through a process of competitive reverse bidding for tariffs. Moreover, demonstrates that policy design and implementation showed a good deal of experimentation and learning. Argues that some risks remain, especially regarding the enforceability of renewable energy quotas at the level of Indian states. On the whole, however, shows that first experiences indicate that "green rents" have been managed in a fairly effective way
Explores the scope for and performance of industrial policies in seven low and lower-middle-income countries. Confirms that many industrial policies have failed, but also shows that in some cases, industrial policies have indeed accelerated structural transformation -even in political regimes with fairly strong authoritarian and clientelist traits, such as Tunisia, Vietnam, and Ethiopia. Examines to what extent lessons from rich countries can serve as guidelines for industrial policy in low and lower-middle-income countries
Abstract: "This study deals with one specific form of donor support for policy reform, namely donor-financed policy reform programmes that are based on a combination of pilot projects and high-level advice - so called multilevel approaches. German development agencies argue that policy reform processes involve complex societal changes and can therefore not be decreed and implemented through top-down processes. According to their argument, high-level policy advisory services that are not embedded in processes of societal change can offer blueprints but not tailor-made solutions and are therefore rarely able to bring about lasting change. They insist that good policy solutions need to be tested in practice, and stake holder support needs to be built through participatory learning processes. GTZ in particular claims to have a competitive advantage vis-à-vis other donors that do not offer as much "multi-level competence" and processbased policy support. The purpose of the present volume is to se
When shifting from high-carbon cars to electromobility, countries adopt different policies; also, industry characteristics and demand conditions differ, giving rise to country-specific technological pathways. This study on Germany is part of a comparative project also including France, China, India.
