Classification and clustering in business cycle analysis

Meer over het boek

The analysis of cyclical macroeconomic phenomena is a vital area of econometric research. Recently, the focus has shifted from quantitative forecasting to qualitatively diagnosing the economy's state, categorizing it into discrete phases such as "upswing," "recession," or "boom." The main challenge lies in efficiently distilling complex quantitative data about the business cycle into these qualitative assessments. For over six years, the project "Multivariate determination and analysis of business cycles," part of the SFB 475 initiative funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG), addressed this challenge. Complexity reduction is not exclusive to business cycle analysis; it is relevant across various fields and methodologies. This widespread interest in simplifying problem dimensionality and effectively integrating data with theory led to a workshop organized by RWI Essen and the Statistical Department of the University of Dortmund in January 2002. The workshop showcased findings from this project and similar studies. This publication compiles revised versions of the papers presented at that workshop, which, despite occurring five years ago, represent a significant milestone in the evolution of business cycle research.