An Economic Analysis of Conflicts

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The book presents a quantitative framework for analyzing conflict dynamics and estimating the economic costs of civil wars, utilizing modified Lotka-Volterra equations for realistic modeling. It evaluates economic impacts through a production function and a synthetic control approach, highlighting how civil wars undermine growth and create adverse externalities. A detailed application is provided using data from the Greek Civil War (1946-1949), incorporating battle casualties and socio-economic indicators to illustrate the framework's effectiveness in assessing prolonged conflict traps.