Handbook of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting

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Hydrometeorological prediction forecasts the state and variation of elements such as precipitation, temperature, humidity, and river discharge across various spatial and temporal scales. These forecasts are crucial for informing the public about natural hazards like cyclones, heat waves, and floods. Traditionally, most operational centers rely on deterministic forecasts, which provide a single best estimate of impending events but lack uncertainty information, limiting decision-makers' ability to assess risks. Recently, ensemble forecast approaches have emerged, generating multiple forecasts by perturbing uncertain factors like model forcings and initial conditions. These ensemble forecasts not only estimate the most probable future state but also quantify predictive uncertainty for catastrophic events. The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), launched in 2004, fosters collaboration among meteorologists, hydrologists, and forecast users to enhance operational hydrometeorological forecasts for better use by emergency and water resource managers. HEPEX promotes a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) framework, which includes components for addressing uncertainty in meteorological inputs, land data assimilation, model parameter calibration, hydrological modeling, and output uncertainty characterization. HEPS frameworks are increasingly adopted globally, supporting risk management for flooding and