Oil, electricity and Talebs Black Swan

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The thesis explores the impact of Black Swan events on the energy sector, challenging traditional strategic prediction models that rely on incremental data trends. By defining Black Swans as unpredictable, high-impact occurrences, the study critiques existing forecasting methods that often fail to account for these outliers. It analyzes historical oil price fluctuations to identify patterns and assess the influence of Black Swans on the energy landscape. Ultimately, the paper seeks to propose strategies for mitigating the risks associated with such unpredictable events in the future.